William Easterly, economista (polémico) dedicado al desarrollo económico, hace una analogía entre el mundial y el desempeño en el desarrollo de los países.
Today’s official metaphor is, of course, for us sports-obsessed nuts, the World Cup. Early rounds have seen remarkable upsets: Switzerland beats Spain, Japan beats Cameroon, Serbia beats Germany. Yet no super long shot team has ever won the World Cup. In fact, 14 of the 18 previous World Cups were won by only 4 teams: Brazil, Germany, Italy, and Argentina.
[...] Economic growth has a lot of random variation. Over a short period of time (metaphorically equivalent to one game), a country with bad policies and bad institutions still might have a good growth rate. But over a long period of time (equivalent to playing many successive games), the consistent winners are very likely to be countries with good policies and good institutions. So in deciding whether a particular set of policies and institutions are good or bad, you need to look at long periods (tournaments) and not at short ones (single games).
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Buenísimo.
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